Most Cooked Airlines Right Now

Share of each carrier's departures in the last 12 hours that were cancelled or left 45+ minutes late, from the live FAA feed.

Long-Run Monthly History

Monthly cancellation rate per major carrier from U.S. DOT/BTS on-time records, January 2023 through April 2026, smoothed with a 3-month EMA (hover any point for the raw monthly value). This dataset is surprisingly hard to find assembled anywhere else.

If Your Flight Is Cancelled

Call the airline while you walk to the desk; the phone line and the app often rebook faster than the counter. Numbers below are the main U.S. reservations lines; confirm on the airline's site if one has changed.

Your rights (U.S. domestic): if the airline cancels or significantly changes your flight and you don't take the alternative, you're owed a cash refund, not a voucher. Most major airlines also commit to free rebooking, meals, and (for airline-caused problems) hotels. DOT airline commitments dashboard → Refund rules → File a DOT complaint → Fly-Rights guide →

Stuck overnight? Every expanded flight on the board and every verdict shows quick links for hotels, food, and the airport's own site for that airport.

The Model

A gradient-boosted trees model (LightGBM), isotonic-calibrated so the output is an honest probability, not just a ranking. When it says 8%, flights like yours really do cancel about 8% of the time. It is fully deterministic (same inputs, same number) and no AI/LLM is involved.

The Data

Trained on 3+ years of U.S. Department of Transportation (BTS) On-Time Performance records: every scheduled domestic flight from 2023 through early 2026.

How It's Tested

• Temporal split: trained on the earliest window, tuned on the middle, scored on a held-out most-recent window. (Random folds leak: one storm day would put twin flights in both train and test.)
• Rare-event metrics: cancellations run only ~1.5-2% of flights, so it's judged on PR-AUC and Brier score (calibration), not raw accuracy, which would look great just by always guessing "not cancelled."
• Biggest signal: the inbound aircraft's delay or cancellation. Cancellations cascade down an aircraft's day, so when the plane bringing your aircraft is late or cancelled, the estimate reacts immediately.