Enter your flight number and travel date, then hit
Am I Cooked? for a calibrated cancellation probability.
Verdict — Cancellation Forecast
The Model
A gradient-boosted trees model (LightGBM), isotonic-calibrated so the
output is an honest probability — not just a ranking. When it says 8%, flights like
yours really do cancel about 8% of the time.
The Data
Trained on 3+ years of U.S. Department of Transportation (BTS) On-Time Performance
records — every scheduled domestic flight from 2023 through early 2026.
How It's Tested
- Temporal split — trained on the earliest window, tuned on the middle, scored on
a held-out most-recent window. (Random folds leak: one storm day would put twin flights
in both train and test.)
- Rare-event metrics — cancellations run only ~1.5–2% of flights, so it's judged
on PR-AUC and Brier score (calibration), not raw accuracy — which would look great just
by always guessing "not cancelled."
- Biggest signal — the inbound aircraft's delay or cancellation. Cancellations
cascade down an aircraft's day, so the previous leg's status moves the number most.
Heads up: this is a personal project for fun and curiosity — not a guarantee.
Real cancellations hinge on weather, ATC, and last-minute ops the model can't see. Treat
it as a rough read, not travel advice, and always keep your own backup plan.